Ministry of Transportation

Study of the Effectiveness of Road Transport Policy to Prevent COVID-19 Dissemination (2020)

The number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia increased significantly in 2020, affecting people’s daily activities. To prevent further transmission of the virus, the Indonesian Government implemented several regulations, including Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB), and advised people to work, study, and conduct other activities from home whenever possible. In addition to limiting population movement and reducing transport demand, the government also instructed transport operators and related businesses to implement health protocols in all public transportation services.

In response to this situation, the Ministry of Transportation of the Republic of Indonesia assigned a team from the National Center for Sustainable Transportation Technology (NCSTT), in collaboration with Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB), to study COVID-related road transport policies. The study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the implementation of these regulations and to understand changes in travel behavior during the pandemic. The outcome of the project was a set of recommendations that could serve as references for improving the existing policies in managing the movement of people and goods within a relatively short timeframe, given the urgent need for practical solutions.

The research methodology involved primary data collection through interviews, focus group discussions, and Revealed Preference (RP) and Stated Preference (SP) surveys conducted from July to August 2020. The appraisal is conducted in four aspects:

1. Evaluation of the use of road transport by travelers during the COVID-19 pandemic

   The analysis results indicate that, for higher-income individuals (> IDR 5 million), the main factors influencing travel during the pandemic were job responsibilities and the enforcement of health protocols during the trip. This group generally had the capacity to work remotely (WFH) and tended to be financially secure, with savings or investments. Compared to lower-income individuals (< IDR 5 million), respondents in this category also perceived traveling during the pandemic as risky.

2. Evaluation of health protocol implementation by public transport operators

   During the PSBB period, the implementation of health protocols in public transport was largely limited to mask compliance. In the subsequent New Normal period, compliance improved, indicating that operators were better prepared to address pandemic-related challenges based on their earlier experience during PSBB.

3. Evaluation of health protocol implementation by travelers

   Both private vehicle users and public transport passengers perceived health protocols as essential, and overall performance in their implementation was considered good. However, during the PSBB period, the well-implemented measures were primarily limited to mask compliance, online ticketing, and the provision of health protocol signage.

4. Evaluation of travel restriction selectivity across administrative areas for private vehicles and public transport

   Although a considerable proportion of respondents perceived that intercity movement did not necessarily contribute to COVID-19 spread within a district, they still emphasized the need for an appropriate testing mechanism to prevent transmission. In addition, clear information regarding risk levels in specific zones was considered necessary.

Based on these findings, NCSTT formulated recommendations for COVID-19-related travel regulations. Regarding travel restrictions, in addition to transport policies, improving public confidence in economic stability is essential, as economic necessity was identified as a primary reason for travel. Intercity movement can be reduced through public campaigns, economic support measures, reduction of government-related travel, and strengthened field enforcement.

In terms of health protocols, beyond standardization and proper supervision by relevant authorities, the government may provide support to transport operators to ensure consistent implementation. Public awareness of COVID-19 should also be enhanced through information dissemination via media and city signage. Considering the relatively low accuracy of rapid tests, the use of more reliable testing methods, such as PCR, should be intensified, particularly during the transition to the New Normal. Active participation from operators, government agencies, and other stakeholders is essential to ensure effective policy implementation.

Study of Road Transport Passenger Modelling During COVID-19 (2020)

As a continuation of the initial COVID-19 research, NCSTT conducted a follow-up study to review ongoing regulations related to passenger movement and COVID-19 transmission in Indonesia. The study modeled the correlation between population activity, interzone mobility, and the spread of COVID-19 in West Java.

The regression analysis demonstrated a strong correlation between the number of trips to and from epicenter areas and the rate of COVID-19 cases. A significant relationship was also identified within activity centers, where higher levels of crowd density were associated with increased virus transmission. Public transport users were found to have a higher risk of infection compared to other groups. In addition, the time lag of virus transmission was modeled, indicating a delay of approximately 7–14 days between mobility changes and observed case increases.

Based on these findings, NCSTT formulated several recommendations. For movements to and from epicenter areas, stricter connectivity control and monitoring of travel flows should be implemented. Control measures are also necessary in high-density activity areas such as retail centers, recreational facilities, and stations. Limiting visitor capacity and reducing operational hours may help mitigate transmission risks.

Travel restrictions and related control policies should consider the identified time lag and be tailored to specific regional conditions. Furthermore, health protocols implemented in public transport should be complemented by demand management mechanisms to effectively reduce mobility-related transmission risks.

Study of Economic Impact for Road Transport Business During COVID-19 (2020)

COVID-19 has negatively impacted the road transport industry, as passenger numbers declined while infection cases continued to increase. At the same time, transport operators were required to improve facilities and implement preventive measures to reduce virus transmission, rebuild user confidence, and manage passenger behavior. Following the implementation of COVID-19-related ministerial regulations (PM 18/2020, PM 5/2020, and SE No. 4/2020), a significant contraction in the national economy was observed.

In August 2020, NCSTT conducted a study to assess the economic impact of COVID-19 on the road transport sector. The research focused on passenger capacity limitations, actual occupancy rates during restriction periods, and the operational costs borne by transport operators.

NCSTT identified two major uncertainties affecting the road transport business: the national COVID-19 situation and public trust in using public transport. Occupancy rates were projected to fall below 20% in red-zone areas and range between 20–40% in other zones. Three scenarios were analyzed—Gridlock, Busway, and Highway—resulting in three potential business conditions: Contraction, Consolidation, and Recovery. For each scenario, NCSTT formulated stimulus recommendations based on supply–demand analysis and the assessment of direct and indirect costs. Porter’s Diamond Model was applied using both primary and secondary data to map policy interventions.

The analysis indicated that improving business resilience would require financial support mechanisms, such as subsidies or levy waivers for transport operators, as well as the implementation of the Buy the Service (BTS) scheme. Supporting measures include maintaining fair competition, restoring transport demand balance, and ensuring strict enforcement of health protocols across all transport infrastructure.

The effectiveness of the proposed measures was evaluated using a resource-impact matrix. Policies such as subsidies for health protocol implementation, permit fees, tax relief, tariff support, and BTS implementation were categorized as high-impact but resource-intensive interventions.

To address the economic challenges faced by the transport sector during the pandemic, NCSTT proposed the following regulatory recommendations:

1. Standardization of COVID-19 health protocols and procedures for identifying suspected cases across all transport infrastructure and fleets to ensure passenger safety.
2. Strengthened law enforcement against illegal operators to maintain fair market conditions.
3. A moratorium on new road transport business licenses.
4. Incentives to support business consolidation among operators.
5. Subsidies for health protocol facilities and administrative levies.
6. Vehicle tax waivers and loan restructuring schemes.
7. Subsidies for public transport fares and human resource costs.
8. Implementation of the Buy the Service (BTS) scheme in major cities to ensure service quality and operational sustainability.

Business Model and Strategy for Road Transport after COVID-19 (2020)

To understand the impact of COVID-19 on the road transport sector, NCSTT investigated changes in transport demand in several major cities in Indonesia, including Jakarta, Surabaya, Bandung, and Makassar. Due to the significant decline in activities at public places such as retail centers, recreational areas, and workplaces, NCSTT analyzed the resulting impacts on transport operators.

The analysis applied both macro and micro strategies to support the recovery of the road transport business climate in the post-COVID-19 period. Using literature reviews, policy benchmarking with selected reference countries, expert judgment, and focus group discussions, the macro-strategy analysis generated three main policy directions: tax relaxation, economic incentive regulations for transport services, and supporting regulatory adjustments. The micro-strategy analysis applied a right-sizing approach to optimize operational performance and improve quality control.

With passenger demand decreasing by up to 90%, operators attempted to anticipate additional COVID-19-related costs by reducing fleet size and workforce numbers. However, revenues still declined by approximately 80%. The business revitalization model developed by NCSTT assumed 70% compliance with health protocols in public transport, combined with the implementation of the proposed macro and micro strategies.

Based on the analysis, seven key recommendations were formulated:

1. Revitalization of public transport facilities to restore passenger confidence after COVID-19.
2. Fuel subsidies for public transport based on trip length for each route.
3. Implementation of road surcharges during peak demand periods.
4. Time allocation and shift control for activities in high-density areas, such as business districts, to reduce peak crowding in public transport.
5. Temporary exemption of BPJS (health and employment insurance) contributions for transport sector workers.
6. Provision of direct financial assistance (BLT) for transport workers, including drivers, mechanics, and operational staff, as economic protection.
7. Expansion of the Buy the Service (BTS) scheme to additional areas to ensure feeder connectivity for transit systems.

Study of Transport Regulation and Traffic Management Planning in Puncak Area (2020)

The Puncak Area serves as a connector between several cities and experiences high traffic volumes, particularly during weekends and holiday seasons. Its hilly and uneven topography, combined with numerous recreational destinations in the surrounding areas, contributes to recurring congestion over time. The Ministry of Transportation, together with the Jabodetabek Transportation Management Authority (BPTJ), has initiated a transportation reform plan targeting a 60% modal shift from private vehicles to mass public transport for travelers accessing the Puncak Area.

NCSTT and ITB conducted a study to develop strategies for addressing traffic congestion in the Puncak Area through improvements in public transport operations and spatial planning-based demand management. The study examined operational traffic management aspects, including trip distribution, potential public transport modes, prospective user identification, and route planning.

Following the initial analysis, a review of relevant regulations related to regional transportation and the tourism sector was undertaken. In terms of transport network and traffic management, NCSTT analyzed the root causes of congestion and evaluated the service performance of key corridors within the Puncak Area. Several surveys were conducted to support the analysis, including drone surveys, stated and revealed preference surveys, and traffic counts to collect existing operational data.

The results indicated that a dedicated shuttle bus system would be the most suitable service to accommodate tourists visiting recreational destinations in the Puncak Area. The proposed service includes multiple route options, such as direct routes, drop-off services, and interchange-based routes. Supporting facilities, including Park & Ride and interchange stations, were identified within major trip generation areas.

Business model development was conducted based on traveler profiles and behavior analysis, market segmentation, and financial scheme evaluation. The feasibility of implementing a Buy the Service (BTS) scheme was also assessed in coordination with relevant stakeholders, including consideration of risk management and potential funding mechanisms. The study provides long-term recommendations to address congestion and improve traffic management in the Puncak Area.

Regulation and Policy Study of the Implementation of Electric-based Autonomous Public Transport Technology Planning in the National Capital (2020)

Electric vehicles have become a preferred mode of transport in many developed countries. In addition to their high energy efficiency, they produce no direct carbon emissions, making them more environmentally friendly than fossil fuel-based vehicles. The operational costs of electric vehicles are also estimated to be up to three times lower than those of conventional internal combustion engine vehicles.

At the same time, the advancement of autonomous vehicle technology has become a strategic priority in various countries. Autonomous systems are projected to represent the future of transportation technology, with the potential to transform conventional vehicle operations.

The development of Indonesia’s new National Capital (IKN) includes plans to adopt both electric and autonomous vehicle technologies within its road transport network. In this context, NCSTT is conducting a study to formulate regulatory frameworks for the implementation of autonomous electric vehicles in public transport services in IKN. The study covers socio-economic considerations, technological readiness, safety and security aspects, as well as the development of implementation guidelines.

Development Study of Railway Infrastructure Usage Load Measurement Prototype: Design Planning (2020)

In Indonesia, the railway infrastructure is operated by business entities owned by local or national governments. The cost related to the maintenance is funded by the government and calculated in the IMO (Infrastructure Maintenance Operation) mechanism, which is regulated in the ministry regulation (PM No. 156 Tahun 2015). The calculation is interpreted as 0.75 IMO = 1 TAC (Track Access Charge), excluding the investment return aspect. This study aims to develop a counterbalance and proportional formulation regarding TAC calculation according to the relevant cost items.

NCSTT will evaluate the existing mechanism of TAC assessment and identify the relevant matters. In general, this research will construct a concept of automatic detectors in railway infrastructure based on primary and secondary data surveys. Further, it will simulate suitable technology and formulate the appropriate design criterion of the load measuring instrument, ensuring an optimal result within the capability.

Development Study of Public Transport in South of Bali (2020)

As tourism is the leading sector driving Bali’s economic growth, transportation plays a critical role in supporting the local economy. Bali recorded economic growth rates of 5.22% in 2018 and 5.8% in 2019, among the highest in Indonesia. Enhancing Bali’s development will contribute to national economic growth; therefore, upgrading its transport infrastructure will provide benefits not only at the regional level but also in the broader national context over the long term.

Currently, public transport services in Bali, particularly in the southern region, do not evenly cover all areas. Existing services require further development to accommodate increasing travel demand, especially during peak hours. In addition to tourism-related trips, significant local movement also contributes to traffic congestion.

To address this issue, the Bali Provincial Government, in collaboration with the Ministry of Transportation of the Republic of Indonesia, initiated studies on innovative public transport systems, including hybrid buses and urban rail alternatives such as metro, Light Rail Transit (LRT), Autonomous Rapid Transit (ART), and Automated Guided Transit (AGT). Several entities, including state-owned enterprises, are involved in these studies. NCSTT and ITB were assigned to conduct the study for the southwest area of Bali, characterized by green fields, residential zones, and selected tourism destinations.

Considering Bali’s strong cultural and religious values, the study included comprehensive surveys covering road network characteristics, cultural heritage sites, points of interest, socio-cultural conditions, and travel behavior patterns. In addition to field observations, stated preference surveys were conducted, distinguishing between local residents and tourists.

Two main corridors were identified for the southwest route plan: I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport–Mengwi Bus Terminal and Benoa Port–I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport, traversing Denpasar, Kuta, and Tabanan. NCSTT evaluated several transport mode alternatives, including hybrid/electric buses, LRT, and ART.

The analysis indicates that for the southwest area, mass rapid transit systems (LRT or ART) provide the most sustainable long-term solution. Bus-based systems are projected to face overcrowding as demand increases, and the narrow road geometry limits the feasibility of maintaining buses in mixed traffic. However, cultural constraints restrict elevated infrastructure in certain areas. In such sections, underground infrastructure is considered, although it requires substantial investment. Therefore, integrating the southwest corridor with other planned north–south or southeast alignments is recommended to enhance financial feasibility and long-term sustainability.